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Since the UK would take full control of a natural resource currently harvested by EU boats, it is estimated there’ll be a rise in catch of up to £700m-800m per year and a total boost to the supply chain of around £3bn per year.
Princeton economist, Ashoka Mody, suggests the GDP loss caused by Brexit would amount to £10.5bn, a number which is ten to fifteen times smaller than the figure the Treasury and Bank of England are claiming.
The views of Scottish and Irish nationalists are strengthened, since Scottish independence and Irish unity are presented as a jump into the future with the EU—rather than staying put with a regressive and limiting England.
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If Brexit is completed, the UK’s GDP growth rate until 2030 would reduce from 30% to 24%.
An analysis of the UK Treasury shows that with Brexit, the UK economy would fall into recession with four quarters of negative growth. After two years, GDP would be around 3.6% lower compared with a non-Brexit scenario.
A Government study estimated that a free trade agreement with the US would add, at most, 0.3% to economic output. And that trade deals with China, India, Australia, the Gulf countries, and the nations of Southeast Asia would add, in total, a further 0.1%-0.4% to GDP.
In 2014, the 27 other EU members accounted for 45% of the UK’s exports and 53% of its imports (ONS, 2015). EU exports comprise 13% of UK national income. These numbers will be affected once the trade barriers are back up.
Being outside the EU means that the UK would not automatically benefit from future EU trade deals with other countries. This would mean missing out on the current US and Japanese deals, which are forecast to improve real incomes by 0.
Studies on how Brexit is likely to affect UK economic performance in the longer term have shown different results, depending on the adopted policies. Conclusions range from a prediction of a boost in output of up to 7%, to a prediction of an 18% decline.
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All those that currently benefit from EU funding would stop receiving funds. This includes businesses, farmers, fishermen, universities and regions.
The IFS has estimated that the abolition of all EU tariffs would cut consumer prices by up to 1.2%.
Almost 30% of UK food currently comes from the EU, in particular: 43% of drinks, 21% of fruit and vegetables, 14% of fish and meat. With Brexit, it is likely that some foods will become more scarce and more expensive.
The uncertainty surrounding the final decision will deter investments; in addition, there would be the transitional costs – not yet quantified – of shifting to a new regime of trade and investment.
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Reduced trade lowers productivity; this would translate into a loss of 6.3% to 9.5% of GDP (about £4,200 to £6,400 per household).
An analysis of the UK Treasury shows that with Brexit, the UK economy would fall into recession with four quarters of negative growth. After two years, GDP would be around 3.6% lower compared with a non-Brexit scenario.
A study based on Paul Krugman’s model led to a different estimation of the effect on UK GDP from rising UK-EU trade barriers: it would be just 0.5% of UK GDP.
The 1.2 million individuals born in the UK but living in other EU member states, or those wishing to work, live or travel in other EU member states, might not be able to do so.
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In the most optimistic scenario, there would be a 1.3% fall in average UK incomes (or £850 per household). In a pessimistic scenario - with larger increases in trade costs - Brexit lowers income by 2.6% (£1,700 per household).
Since the referendum, Brexit is estimated to have reduced the level of UK productivity by between 2% and 5%. In part, this is probably due to the fact that firms are committing several hours per week of top-management time to Brexit planning.
Studies which focused on the impact on migration, have all assumed that net migration to the UK will be reduced as a result of Brexit, leading to somewhere between a 0.2% and 1.6% reduction in GDP.